How a water-sharing pact turned into a geopolitical flashpoint after the April 2025 massacre
On April 22, 2025, a brutal terrorist attack shook India. Gunmen from Pakistan-backed terrorist outfits opened fire on tourists at the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Jammu & Kashmir, killing 26 innocent civilians, many of them families on vacation. It was one of the deadliest non-military terror attacks in recent Indian history.
While the nation mourned, the Government of India responded swiftly — not just with military and diplomatic measures, but by taking aim at a six-decade-old water agreement: the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
Could water — once a symbol of peace between India and Pakistan — now become the next battleground?
The Attack That Shook the Nation
The April 2025 Pahalgam massacre was carried out by operatives of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its shadow front The Resistance Front (TRF) — groups long known for their support from across the border. The killing of 26 civilians, including children and women, triggered nationwide outrage.
Speaking just two days later, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed:
"India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth... The will of 140 crores will break the back of the masters of terror."
The Indus Waters Treaty: A Brief Background
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty divides the Indus River system between India and Pakistan:
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Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej): India gets full control.
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Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab): Pakistan gets most rights, though India can use them for hydropower and limited irrigation.
Despite wars and conflicts, the treaty survived — until now.
India’s Retaliation: Suspension of the Treaty
On April 24, 2025, the Indian government chaired a high-level Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting. The outcome was a historic — and aggressive — five-point plan:
🔺 1. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty
India announced it would place the IWT in “abeyance” — meaning all treaty obligations were suspended until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends its support to terrorism.
🔺 2. Closure of Attari-Wagah Border
The Integrated Check Post for passenger and cargo movement was shut down indefinitely.
🔺 3. Visa Cancellations
The SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme was revoked for Pakistani citizens, and existing visas were cancelled.
🔺 4. Diplomatic Downgrade
India expelled Pakistani military and diplomatic personnel and reduced embassy staff strength in both countries from 55 to 30.
🔺 5. End of Hydrological Data Sharing
India halted the flow of river and flood data to Pakistan — a move critical for downstream flood warnings and water planning.
🧱 India’s Water Strategy: Beyond the Treaty
Suspending the treaty was just the beginning. India also announced a three-phase water diversion plan to maximize use of western rivers:
📌 Phase 1: Short-Term
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Immediate halt to data sharing.
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Revocation of Pakistani visas.
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Crackdown on domestic sleeper cells.
📌 Phase 2: Mid-Term Infrastructure
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Refurbishing of storage dams in J&K and Punjab.
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Redirection of river flow using canals like:
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Indus–Yamuna Link Canal (IYLC)
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Indus–Sutlej Link Canal (ISL Canal)
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Aim: Transfer excess water from western rivers to Indian states (J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan).
📌 Phase 3: Long-Term Strategy
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Fast-track hydropower projects like Kishanganga, Ratle, Baglihar, Pakal Dul, and Tulbul.
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Full Indian utilization of water allowed under IWT.
Global Reaction & Legal Justification
India defended its move at global forums like the UN, stating:
“Terrorism undermines treaties. Pakistan cannot expect rivers to keep flowing while it fuels cross-border violence.”
While Pakistan raised objections at the World Bank, India clarified:
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The treaty was not revoked, only suspended under national security concerns.
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There’s no clause in the treaty compelling India to keep water flowing unconditionally while under terror attack.
Can India Really Stop the Water?
Technically, India can’t instantly cut off all flows due to natural topography. But it can:
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Divert flows through canals.
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Store more water in Indian reservoirs.
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Build new infrastructure to reduce spillover into Pakistan.
India’s Jal Shakti Minister C.R. Patil declared:
“Not a single drop of India’s rightful water will go to Pakistan anymore.”
Is a Future Battle Inevitable? The Water War Theory
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in response to the Pahalgam attack marks more than just diplomatic retaliation — it signals the emergence of water as a potential trigger for future conflict in South Asia.
For decades, nuclear weapons kept open war at bay between India and Pakistan. But as rivers dry, populations explode, and cross-border terrorism continues, water — not bombs — could ignite the next war.
Scenario 1: Tactical Water Warfare
Imagine a future where India, citing national security, fully blocks or diverts flow of the Chenab or Jhelum rivers — even temporarily — during peak agricultural seasons. Pakistan, which depends on the Indus basin for over 90% of its agriculture, could experience massive food and water shortages within weeks.
This could prompt:
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Military escalation at the Line of Control (LoC),
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Airspace violations under the guise of "hydro monitoring",
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Or retaliatory attacks via proxy terror groups — bringing both nations to the brink.
Scenario 2: Accidental Flooding or Infrastructure Collapse
If a dam like Baglihar or Kishanganga collapses (whether due to natural causes or sabotage), Pakistan might perceive it as an act of water aggression. Given limited real-time trust and communication channels, even an accidental flood from a mismanaged reservoir could be misconstrued as an attack, prompting hasty military responses.
This is particularly dangerous in the Kashmir valley — a high-tension, highly militarized region.
Scenario 3: Hybrid Warfare Using Water Pressure
Just as cyber attacks and economic sanctions are part of modern warfare, water flow manipulation could become a silent pressure tool. India could slow or speed up river flows to:
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Create seasonal water stress in Pakistan,
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Force negotiations on unrelated geopolitical issues,
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Or exert psychological pressure on civilian populations.
In retaliation, Pakistan may fund further insurgency in J&K or attempt sabotage of Indian dams or canal projects, leading to covert and overt military actions.
Why the World Should Worry
South Asia is home to nearly 2 billion people — and the Indus River system is its lifeline. If water becomes a bargaining chip, any miscalculation could spiral into a full-blown war between two nuclear-armed neighbours.
China, which also controls parts of the upper Indus basin, could get involved, further complicating the regional equation. The risk isn’t just limited to war — it’s the collapse of the fragile balance that has kept peace, however imperfect, for decades.
The Pahalgam attack wasn’t just a tragedy — it was a turning point. India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty sends a strong message: there’s no cooperation without accountability.
But it also opens a dangerous new chapter in India–Pakistan relations, where every dam, flood, or canal could be seen as a threat. If water, once a symbol of life and peace, becomes a tool of war, then the next Indo-Pak conflict may not begin with guns — but with a river running dry.
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