The Prime Minister’s trip underscores India’s bid to balance ties with Beijing and Moscow, while navigating economic headwinds from Washington.
Background: Why This Visit Matters Now
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to travel to China for the first time in seven years, a visit that comes at a delicate moment in global politics. The last major engagement between the two Asian giants was the 2018 informal summit in Wuhan, which sought to stabilise ties after the Doklam standoff.
Since then, relations have sharply deteriorated following the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, which left soldiers dead on both sides and plunged bilateral trust to its lowest point in decades. Talks on border disengagement have dragged on, while trade ties have paradoxically expanded despite political hostility.
This visit, therefore, is more than a diplomatic formality. It signals New Delhi’s intent to recalibrate its foreign policy amidst rising economic challengess most notably, the imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian exports by Washington.
Xi, Putin, and Modi: A Strategic Triangle
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| Indian prime minister Narendra Modi (C) with Chinese president Xi Jinping (L) and Russian president Vladimir Putin |
The core of this trip lies in Modi’s planned meetings with both President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Together, these three leaders represent the fulcrum of Eurasian geopolitics, where India’s interests intersect with competing pressures from the United States and its allies.
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With Xi Jinping, Modi is expected to push for border stability and fairer trade terms. India’s trade deficit with China stands at over $100 billion, heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. Normalisation of ties, even partially, would ease economic pressures on New Delhi.
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With Vladimir Putin, energy and defence cooperation dominate the agenda. Russia has emerged as India’s top crude oil supplier since 2022, selling at discounted rates amidst Western sanctions. Defence ties remain vital, although diversification to Western suppliers is ongoing.
Together, the three leaders also form the backbone of BRICS, a grouping that has been positioning itself as an alternative to Western-led institutions. Modi’s presence signals that India is unwilling to cede space to China and Russia in shaping the bloc’s future trajectory.
The Tariff Shock from Washington
The immediate backdrop to Modi’s outreach is economic. The United States has imposed steep tariffs as high as 50% on several categories of Indian goods, including textiles, steel, and leather.
For an export-driven economy like India’s, these measures are a major blow. Washington has long criticised India’s market access policies, while New Delhi has resisted what it sees as protectionist overreach.
At a time when India has been deepening its strategic alignment with the U.S. through forums like the QUAD, the tariff escalation highlights the fragility of that partnership. It also provides an incentive for India to hedge more visibly by engaging Beijing and Moscow.
Economic Stakes for India
The economic dimension of this visit cannot be overstated:
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China is India’s second-largest trading partner, yet the trade balance is overwhelmingly skewed in Beijing’s favour. India imports machinery, electronics, and critical components while exporting mainly raw materials. A more balanced trade equation is essential for India’s manufacturing ambitions.
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Russia has emerged as a lifeline for India’s energy security. Affordable crude, fertilisers, and defence technology keep bilateral ties resilient despite global sanctions. Modi’s meeting with Putin is likely to reinforce the message that New Delhi will pursue its national interests, regardless of Western pressure.
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Alternative trade frameworks are also on the table. Discussions around local currency settlements, a potential BRICS digital currency, and reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar are gaining traction. India remains cautious, but these conversations point to a changing financial order in which New Delhi will need to position itself carefully.
Geopolitical Implications
The symbolism of Modi’s China trip reverberates beyond trade and tariffs.
For India, the challenge lies in balancing two seemingly contradictory tracks: participation in U.S.-led groupings like QUAD and I2U2, while also deepening involvement in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The ability to straddle both worlds has been New Delhi’s hallmark, but tensions are growing.
For China, the visit offers a chance to prevent India from drifting completely into Washington’s camp. Beijing understands that even limited cooperation with New Delhi helps blunt U.S. efforts to build an “anti-China arc” in Asia.
For Russia, Modi’s presence is a reassurance that India remains a committed partner even as Moscow grows increasingly dependent on Beijing. With the West seeking to isolate Russia, India’s engagement is a valuable diplomatic asset.
Challenges on the Table
Despite the optics of high-level meetings, deep challenges remain unresolved:
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Border tensions: Disengagement talks at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remain incomplete. Without meaningful progress, public and political opinion in India will remain sceptical of any rapprochement.
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Chinese investment restrictions: India has tightened scrutiny on Chinese companies in tech and telecom sectors, citing security concerns. This has dampened investor sentiment.
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Russia’s tilt towards China: As Moscow grows closer to Beijing, India faces the risk of being sidelined in strategic calculations.
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U.S. reaction: Washington will closely watch Modi’s outreach to Xi and Putin. Any perception of India leaning too far East could complicate the evolving Indo-Pacific partnership.
The Road Ahead
Ultimately, Modi’s China visit is not just about bilateral ties or managing tariffs. It is about shaping India’s strategic posture in a rapidly fragmenting world order.
Can India secure tariff relief from the U.S. while simultaneously stabilising ties with China and sustaining its energy lifeline from Russia? Can it leverage BRICS without undermining its QUAD commitments?
The answers to these questions will not emerge overnight. But Modi’s decision to step back into Beijing’s diplomatic orbit after seven years suggests that New Delhi is prepared to recalibrate, adapt, and pursue multiple avenues to safeguard its economic and strategic interests.
This visit, therefore, is more than symbolic. It may well mark the beginning of a new chapter in India’s foreign policy one where pragmatism trumps ideology, and where balancing multiple partners becomes the defining challenge of the decade ahead.
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