New Delhi / Moscow As global tensions continue to simmer over the Russia-Ukraine war, a high-profile visit by India's National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval to Moscow has caught the attention of global observers. The timing is crucial: the United States has once again raised the threat of imposing trade tariffs on India, citing New Delhi's continued oil imports from Russia as the cause. This development marks a critical juncture in India's foreign policy balancing strategic autonomy while navigating threats from the West.
Strategic Partnership in Focus
Ajit Doval’s visit to Moscow is not just a routine diplomatic engagement. It comes at a time when India-Russia relations are being redefined under the shadow of international scrutiny. Over the past two years, India has emerged as one of the biggest importers of discounted Russian crude oil leveraging this economic opportunity despite mounting pressure from the West.
Doval’s meetings in Moscow are believed to include top Russian intelligence and security officials, as well as members of President Putin’s inner circle. The topics likely range from defense cooperation and intelligence sharing to regional stability in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
The Russian Oil Dilemma
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has significantly ramped up its oil imports from Russia, capitalizing on deep discounts. From being a negligible player in Russian oil markets pre-2022, India has now become one of the top three buyers.
This move has angered the United States and the European Union, who have imposed heavy sanctions on Russian energy exports to limit Moscow’s war chest. However, the same Western nations continue to import critical resources from Russia themselves.
According to recent reports:
The EU increased imports of Russian LNG by 37% in 2024.
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The U.S. imported Russian uranium and fertilizers, despite publicly calling for an energy boycott.
This apparent hypocrisy has not gone unnoticed in New Delhi.
India’s Strategic Autonomy
India’s foreign policy is guided by a doctrine of multi-alignment, not bloc politics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his top security advisers, including Ajit Doval, have reiterated that India will act in its national interest, irrespective of geopolitical pressures.
Doval’s Moscow visit can be seen as a reaffirmation of that stance. While the U.S. has been a strategic partner in defense, trade, and technology, New Delhi has refused to toe the Western line when it comes to its relations with Russia.
India continues to purchase S-400 missile defense systems, invests in Russian energy projects, and collaborates in space, nuclear, and defense sectors. These engagements are unlikely to stop, even under tariff threats.
Tariff Threats from the U.S.: A Bullying Tactic?
Earlier this week, U.S. officials suggested that India could face punitive tariffs or trade restrictions if it continues buying oil from Russia in large volumes. This follows a pattern of coercive diplomacy often used by the United States against nations that refuse to fall in line with its strategic priorities.
However, the Indian response was firm.
“Nations that themselves are trading with Russia should not preach others. India will do what is best for its economy and people,” a senior Indian official said.
This sentiment reflects growing Indian confidence, stemming from its rising economic clout. Now the 5th largest economy in the world, India is not as easily swayed by pressure tactics.
Defense & Intelligence: Strengthening the Moscow Link
Beyond oil, Doval’s visit likely includes talks on enhancing intelligence cooperation. India and Russia have a long-standing defense relationship—dating back to the Cold War. In recent years, with tensions growing in the Indo-Pacific and the Himalayas, intelligence collaboration has gained urgency.
Ajit Doval’s quiet but high-impact diplomacy often signals strategic shifts. His presence in Moscow during a time of global flux may pave the way for:
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Upgraded military technology transfers
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New defense production partnerships
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Deeper cyber and counterterrorism cooperation
The Global Balance Is Shifting
India’s foreign policy under Modi and Doval aims to reshape the global balance, asserting India’s role as a “Vishwaguru” or global power. The tightrope walk between Washington and Moscow is not easy—but India is managing it with a degree of sophistication rarely seen in previous decades.
This is not about siding with Russia against the U.S. Instead, it’s about asserting an independent voice in world affairs free from Cold War-style binary alignments.
What Lies Ahead?
While the U.S. may continue to push for sanctions and trade curbs, India is unlikely to alter its oil policy anytime soon. With elections coming up in the U.S., tariff threats might also be part of domestic posturing by the Biden administration to appear tough on Russia.
India, however, is playing the long game. Doval’s Moscow visit underlines that New Delhi is not willing to sacrifice its energy security or strategic interests at the altar of Western expectations.
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