A Historic Visit on the Horizon
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China on August 31 to attend the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) Summit in Tianjin. If confirmed, this will be his first visit to China after the deadly Galwan clash of 2020, which had triggered a massive downturn in bilateral relations between Asia’s two biggest powers.
At a time when India is facing geopolitical heat from the United States over Russian oil imports and is recalibrating its ties with neighbours, Modi’s visit to China carries layered implications diplomatically, economically, and symbolically.
Backdrop: The Shadow of Galwan
It’s impossible to talk about India-China diplomacy without acknowledging the June 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which led to the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. That incident froze all high-level bilateral engagement between Delhi and Beijing.
Since then, while military-level talks and disengagement efforts continued, political and diplomatic engagement remained limited and tense. Modi skipped the 2022 SCO summit in Uzbekistan and didn’t visit China in 2023 or 2024 either, even as both nations continued to be part of regional multilateral forums like BRICS and G20.
Thus, Modi’s physical presence in China in 2025 five years after Galwan will be seen as a major thaw in relations.
Why is This Visit Happening Now?
The timing of this potential visit isn’t accidental. It aligns with multiple strategic developments:
1. US Pressure and Strategic Autonomy
India is currently under pressure from Washington due to its continued trade with Russia, particularly in oil. The US recently threatened tariffs on Indian exports as a warning.
In response, Indian policymakers have stressed strategic autonomy India’s right to chart its own path in foreign policy, irrespective of global bloc politics.
By attending a China-hosted SCO summit, Modi is signaling that India will not isolate itself from regional frameworks just because of its Western partnerships. It’s a balancing act — one where India wants to stay independent but influential.
2. SCO’s Rising Importance
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has evolved beyond just a regional security body. It’s becoming a platform for multipolar world alignment, especially among countries that want to challenge US-EU dominance.
Tianjin 2025 will be attended by:
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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin
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China’s President Xi Jinping
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Central Asian leaders
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Iran (a new member), and
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Several observer states including Turkey and Belarus.
By participating, India ensures its voice is heard in Eurasia especially on terrorism, trade corridors (like INSTC), energy routes, and digital governance.
Thaw in India-China Practical Relations
In the last few months, India and China have quietly resumed direct flight routes, reopened tourist visas, and are reportedly discussing cooperation on rare earth minerals and fertilizers.
This doesn’t mean tensions are over but it indicates that both countries see benefits in limited normalization.
Security Concerns Still Loom
Despite the optics of a high-level visit, the reality on the ground remains tense. India and China continue to face standoff-like conditions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh.
Military infrastructure buildup by both sides has continued. India remains cautious about China's expansionism and influence in the Indian Ocean.
Hence, Modi’s visit if it happens will be more about strategic signaling than warm reconciliation. No major breakthroughs are expected, but it could lay the groundwork for future dialogues on de-escalation.
What Could Happen at the SCO Summit?
Apart from formal summit meetings, bilateral meetings on the sidelines are key. Analysts expect:
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A Modi-Xi handshake and closed-door meet
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A possible photo-op with Putin and Xi, showing India’s continued engagement with Russia despite Western criticism
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Discussion on counter-terrorism, economic corridors, Afghanistan's stability, and SCO reforms
India may also use this platform to:
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Raise concerns about China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which India opposes due to sovereignty issues in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
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Push for connectivity projects that are non-Chinese-led
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Call for rules-based regional order a quiet dig at Chinese assertiveness.
Geopolitical Optics vs Real Diplomacy
While the event may be projected as diplomacy, the optics will matter more:
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A strong visual of Modi attending a China summit will send a message to the US India isn’t anyone’s pawn.
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It will also help Modi domestically, showcasing him as a global statesman who can engage with adversaries without compromising national interest.
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For China, India’s attendance helps portray the SCO as credible and inclusive, countering Western narratives of isolation.
Conclusion: Calculated Risk or Strategic Masterstroke?
PM Modi’s possible visit to China is more than just a foreign policy event it’s a statement. A statement that India is not bound by ideological camps, that it can engage with both West and East, and that diplomacy is back on the table, but on India’s terms.
Whether this visit leads to real peace with China or remains just another summit will depend on what follows after Tianjin. But one thing is clear India is ready to talk, but from a position of strength.
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